Sabato’s Crystal Ball predicts that former Vice President Joe BidenJoe BidenBiden leads Trump in survey of Texas voters from left-leaning pollster On The Trail: Making sense of Super Poll Sunday Trump rebukes FBI for investigating supporters accused of harassing Biden bus MORE will win a commanding victory in the Electoral College on Tuesday, picking up the battleground states of Arizona, Pennsylvania, Georgia and North Carolina, among others.
The nonpartisan election analyst blog published by the University of Virginia Center for Politics released its final projection for the 2020 election on Monday, indicating the Democratic nominee will win a number of states captured by President TrumpDonald John TrumpBiden leads Trump in survey of Texas voters from left-leaning pollster On The Trail: Making sense of Super Poll Sunday Trump rebukes FBI for investigating supporters accused of harassing Biden bus MORE in 2016.
FINAL CRYSTAL BALL RATINGS — THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE
Biden 321, Trump 217
Biden restores some of the Dem Midwest strength and breaks new ground in Sun Belt pic.twitter.com/i5KIbGMVZX
— Kyle Kondik (@kkondik) November 2, 2020
Both Biden and Trump have campaigned aggressively for Pennsylvania, and the former vice president has also made a play for neighboring Ohio and was shown to have a lead among likely voters in both states in a poll released last week.
A defeat in Ohio would almost certainly spell doom for Trump’s reelection hopes, though the Sabato projection shows dim prospects for that outcome even with a victory in the Rust Belt state. Trump won both states against Hillary ClintonHillary Diane Rodham ClintonOn The Trail: Making sense of Super Poll Sunday Trump winning farm vote despite pinch of trade policies, pandemic Trump stages five rallies in five states in pre-election sprint MORE in 2016, though he captured Pennsylvania by less than 1 percentage point.
David Wasserman of the Cook Political Report, another nonpartisan election analysis site, said on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe” on Monday that he believes Biden is leading Trump in Pennsylvania and Arizona, a state Trump won in 2016 by several points.
Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia Center for Politics and the founder of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, faced criticism from Trump after his late-October 2016 prediction that Clinton would win more than 350 votes in the Electoral College.